Analysis from the research organisation IGD has found that online is predicted to be the fastest growing channel.
Online and discount will contribute almost two-thirds of cash growth and will boost their combined market share from 18.6% to 23.4% over the next five years.
The biggest cash contribution to market growth will be from discounters, where the average shopper visits three times per month. Aldi are on track to open 1,200 stores by 2025 and Lidl are upping store openings to 50-60 per year. It is predicted the discounter market will grow by £9.8bn (40.2%).
Over a fifth (21%) of shoppers say they currently use food discounters for the majority of their shopping (2019), and 26% say this will be the case in 2021-2022.
Simon Wainwright, director of insight at IGD, said: “Growth in the online channel will come from a number of directions. Firstly, newer players are entering the space such as Amazon and meal box operators such as Hello Fresh, Gousto and Mindful Chef.
“Faster and more convenient options to shop for groceries online are being introduced, such as Sainsbury’s, Ocado and Amazon all offering orders within an hour and widening the availability of delivery. More sophisticated analytics are also helping to strengthen customer loyalty.
“From a shopper perspective, the key benefits of shopping more online in future are good value, time saving and ease of shop. Our research tells us that online is preferred the most for the main food shop, with online shoppers saving 23 minutes on average shopping online for their main shop than if they were to do this in a large store.”
It is estimated that by 2024 large stores and supermarkets will account for half the market (50.1%). On average people are having 24 shopping trips per month and spending 18.3 hours a month planning, travelling and unpacking their food shopping. This time consuming task may encourage more people to use online shopping.