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Scientists predict how climate change will affect the foods we grow in the UK

24th Jan 2025 - 07:00
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oranges chickpeas okra climate change food uk scientists
Abstract
A new study led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), in collaboration with the University of East Anglia (UEA), predicts that future warmer temperatures in this country would be suitable for a variety of produce such as oranges, chickpeas and okra that are traditionally grown in warmer parts of the world.

The other ‘winners’ in this scenario are home-produced hummus, tofu and marmalade, which could become a common sight on supermarket shelves by 2080.

There would be increases in suitability for a broad range of crops not currently widely grown in the UK – such as sunflower, durum wheat, soybeans, cow peas, citrus fruit and wine grapes.

The research also found that some existing key crops are likely to become harder to grow in our agricultural heartlands. Wheat, strawberries, onions and oats are likely to become harder to grow in the South East and East Anglia due to the predicted temperature change.

The scientists investigated the future suitability for over 160 existing and new food crops in different regions of the UK under warming scenarios of two and four degrees celsius compared to pre-industrial times.

It is the most comprehensive research of its kind to date and the first to show how suitability for certain produce will vary across the UK.

Lead author Dr John Redhead a spatial ecologist at UKCEH, said: “Our climate is expected to change substantially over coming decades at a time when there will be rising demand for food due to population growth.

“It is therefore essential that arable farming becomes more resilient; one possible solution is growing different crops that are more suited to the new local conditions. Climate change is happening now, and its impacts will increase by 2080, so whatever action is taken will involve big challenges in terms of where our food comes from and the way our agricultural landscapes are managed.”

Written by
Edward Waddell