The study by UK Packaging Supplier Carrier Bag Shop analysed data from UK supermarkets to work out the current cheapest cost of a Christmas dinner from each chain and calculated this against UK inflation rates to see how much they could cost on average by 2030.
Christmas dinner could cost around £50.34 by 2030, which is up from the 2024 average cost of £42.38. This is based on the rate of inflation between 2014 and 2023, which is 2.91% on average.
Aldi could go from £27.79 to £33.01 and remain the cheapest, and Waitrose could go from £51.25 to £60.88, remaining the most expensive. Prices were collected on the following items:
- Turkey, large
- Sage & Onion Stuffing Mix, Paxo, 340g
- Onion gravy granules, Bisto 190g
- Pigs in blankets, frozen 12
- Brussels sprouts, 500g
- Carrots, 1kg
- Mince Pies, 4 pack
- Yorkshire Puddings, 220g, Aunt Bessie’s
- Potatoes, all-rounder 2kg
- Parsnips 500g
Sujan Shah, CEO of Carrier Bag Shop, said: “If inflation rates do grow on the same scale up until 2030, it’s likely the consumer will feel the pinch. This shows how important it can be to make sustainable and budget-friendly choices when shopping in general and not just for the holiday season.
“It will be interesting to see if regular consumers of these individual supermarkets start buying their Christmas dinner ingredients from elsewhere, or people will choose to pay either if the quality is good enough.”