That could mean substituting beef for turkey, offering sea bass or sea bream as an alternative to salmon, or switching the seasonal veg according to availability.
Rachel Dobson, managing director of Lynx Purchasing, said: “There are still very likely to be bumps in the road ahead in supply chain terms. For example, we already know that the combined effects of avian flu and supermarkets securing their supplies early will affect both the availability and price of turkeys this Christmas.
“Processed potato products, such as roasties for the Christmas dinner, are commanding higher prices as a result of the impact on crops of this summer’s extreme hot weather in Europe. Operators who are able to use specials boards tactically, or make changes their seasonal menus to reflect changing price and availability, will be in the strongest position as their busiest time of year approaches.”
The Lynx Purchasing Market Forecast combines official inflation data with exclusive insight from the range of specialist hospitality suppliers Lynx works with, providing detailed information on pricing trends over the crucial coming months.
The warning comes as Lynx Purchasing publishes its free Autumn 2023 edition of its regular Market Forecast. Product areas highlighted include:
- Beef: While demand from hospitality for prime steaks, and roasting joints is high, cuts such as feather blade, flat iron and beef daube represent better value
- Onions: The wet summer has made harvesting this year’s UK onion crop a challenge, as they are very muddy
- Rice: Lower-than-usual global stocks of rice have caused prices to rise
- Cheese: Better news is that commodity prices for cheese have come down this year, which makes using it on menus better value