The warning comes as Lynx publishes a Summer Market Update looking at supply issues in the months ahead.
“The ‘perfect storm’ is about to break,” says Lynx Purchasing managing director Rachel Dobson. “The Bank of England is forecasting that inflation will hit 3% this autumn, other economists suggest 4%, and for some key food and drink sectors it’s likely to be higher still.
“The labour shortage, the impact of Brexit on imports, higher distribution and fuel costs, and the continuing impact of the Covid pandemic globally are all factors. The effect of inflation not only on costs, but also potentially on consumer confidence, coming as operators are working to rebuild after lockdown, is as serious as any challenge the sector has faced in recent years.”
Dobson believes operators will have to factor in higher prices and potential shortages not just now, but as they plan menus for the key Christmas period. On the positive side, produce such as UK-grown salads and berries are currently good quality and excellent value, and there are high hopes for domestic crops of potatoes, salads and onions.
The Summer 2021 Market Forecast can be downloaded from the website at: www.lynxpurchasing.co.uk.