Most businesses across Britain’s eating and drinking-out market are now actively engaged in planning for life after lockdown – although the majority of bosses are not expecting to reopen until June or July, if allowed, and then taking a phased approach.
The poll of over 120 senior executives and entrepreneurs was conducted by CGA, in association with hospitality technology specialist Fourth, during the week beginning April 20.
“This is undoubtedly the most important business leaders' survey we've delivered in a decade,” said Karl Chessell, Director of Food & Retail at CGA. “At this critical juncture, how hospitality leaders plan for the recovery will be critical to the long-term success of their businesses.”
Just 36% of leaders believe they will eventually re-open all of their sites for trading, with another third yet to decide on closures.
But almost all expect to see a much-reduced market overall in the future, with somewhere between 70% and 80% of sites across pubs, bars, restaurants, late-night venues and hotels continuing to trade.
The vast majority (81%) of operators have now started recovery planning, with most considering a range of different scenarios. However, 13% said they were still waiting for more information before starting, while 5% did not currently have the capacity to plan.
When the poll was taken, most leaders assumed lockdown would be lifted in one to three months’ time, with 39% predicting between one and two months and another 29% between two and three.
A third of those surveyed expect to be permanently closing a proportion of their own sites, while most anticipate a much-reduced size of market overall, with late-night venues and restaurants expected to be the hardest hit and hotels most likely to survive.
More optimistically, two thirds of bosses believe it will take them less than two weeks to get their sites ready to trade after lockdown is lifted, including a third (33%) who think they can do it in less than a week, while another 22% anticipate a two to four week preparation period.
James England, Senior Vice President at Fourth, said: “Operators are increasingly focusing their thoughts on reactivation.
“While it’s not yet clear when the lockdown will be lifted, it is apparent that the market will have a fundamentally different outlook when it reopens.
“Reigniting dormant supply chains and accurately forecasting demand in the volatile climate of Covid-19 will require collaboration up and down the supply chain, across technology platforms and operator to operator.”
Losing quality staff during lockdown is a concern for 47% of bosses, although the vast majority of companies have been engaging with furloughed teams at least weekly, and some daily, with WhatsApp and email groups being the most common mode.
Almost all businesses in the sector have furloughed nearly all staff; 83% have furloughed over 90% and 96% over 70%. Three quarters (76%) with furloughed staff are not topping up wages.
Most (73%) operators say they are either confident in accessing the funds needed to reopen or don’t require funding, leaving 27% who are apprehensive about financing a return.
In that context, extending furloughing has wide support, with a three-month extension after sectors re-open backed by 36% and a sector-by-sector extension dependent on opening backed by 33%. Exactly half (50%) of businesses back extending furloughing in three-month blocks, with 40% favouring a month-by-month approach.