The Summer 2014 Market Forecast looks at the prospects for food pricing across the summer and into the autumn. An overview of market and pricing trends for hospitality operators, the forecast also combines analysis of headline ONS inflation figures with exclusive insight from Lynx suppliers.
Among areas for concern highlighted by the market forecast are:
• Potentially higher prices for beef and lamb. In the US, beef production is behind demand for the first time in many years, which has led to South American beef being diverted to make up the shortfall. This drives up demand for UK and Irish beef in turn. Meanwhile, with British lamb prices at their usual seasonal high, demand for Australasian supplies remains strongfrom China and the emerging markets.
• Continued high prices for farmed salmon, due to increased global demand and insufficient stocks, as well as supply issues with farmed tiger prawns due to theEarly Mortality Syndrome virus in Asia.
• Imported fruit is likely to cost more due to problems with disease, including a fungus spreading through banana crops and the potential of a European ban on South African citrus imports due to Citrus Black Spot.
Lynx managing director John Pinder said: “With last year’s horsemeat scandal still fresh in consumers’ memories, newspaper headlines in May focused attention on the use of halal meal by a number of restaurant and foodservice businesses. It was clear that one of the concerns for consumers was that operators may not be asking their suppliers the right questions.
“As consumers become increasingly interested in the provenance of their food, more of the operators we work with are asking us to link them with suppliers that share the same values and commitment.”
Pinder added: “More than ever before, we are advising our customers to buy close to home and in season in order to offer the best value on menus. British pork and poultry, although not immune to rising costs, will represent better value across the summer. Fish from British waters, such as line-caught Newlyn Cornish sardines and Brixham plaice, will be high quality and excellent value until the autumn.
“After a mild winter, we’re also expecting bumper crops of British fruit and vegetables, from potatoes and onions to strawberries and other summer fruits. The added benefit of making home-grown produce a feature on menus is that it helps operators send a clear message about provenance.”
Lynx Purchasing works with more than 2,000 businesses, offering caterers access to the best prices in the market, with no fees or contracts.