Visits to outlets post-referendum were still 0.7% over the equivalent period a year earlier, but it says this is slower than the 1.5% visit growth seen in the period before the referendum.
Full-service restaurants showed the most noticeable dip from 3% to 2%, while quick-service restaurant visits had slipped marginally, from 2.2% to 1.9% post-referendum.
Cyril Lavenant, foodservice director UK at the NPD Group, said: “The British foodservice market has slowed since the Brexit referendum one year ago and the industry remains smaller than it was in 2009. However, the main message is that there is still growth and the industry is showing resilience. This is because operators have spent the past 10 years since the last downturn creating a lively and appealing environment that encourages consumers to keep eating out.
“However, there are big challenges ahead. The weakness of sterling means foodservice operators will have to replace global sourcing with local sourcing while ensuring they still get the quality they need. Inflation will prompt consumers to make savings and so we expect it to dampen demand for eating out.
“Tighter immigration rules will make it harder to hire staff. This is a huge issue in an industry where around 20% of employees are not from the UK. Even if a work-visa system operates when the UK leaves the EU, hiring EU staff would still be more difficult because it will absorb time and create costs. Any sustained staff shortage would damage Britain’s foodservice sector.”
Findings also showed that consumer have started to drop the more expensive dinner, which is down by nearly 3%, although breakfast and lunch appeared to have faster growth since the referendum. Children were another casualty of the post-Brexit eating out market, with a drop of more than 2% in visits by adults accompanied by children of 17 years of age or less.
Visits not involving a deal or promotion were still growing faster than promoted visits, which indicates that consumers feel they are getting good value for money from foodservice operators. The NPD Group, however, warns that the perception of value might change if operators introduce large price increases to cope with strong inflation, and that they will have to respond by maintaining a very appealing experience and great service.
It says the number of visits where consumers choose an outlet for its quality has increased by 3% since the referendum. However, inflation is evident in foodservice and has pushed the average bill per visit up by slightly more than 2%. Less affluent consumers are showing the most caution over spending, with visits dropping by nearly 1%.
• NPD Group’s free seminar entitled: How to Survive Disruption, as Britain begins formal Brexit negotiations, will be held on July 11 2017 at 3pm, and aims to highlight the critical factors needed for the foodservice sector to implement a successful growth strategy. For details, email Cyril Lavenant on Cyril.lavenant@npd.com